Pre-event: Rah Cha Cha Ruckus 2015

Note: This post was removed because I learned that 3683 was not attending the Rah Cha Cha Ruckus (rendering most of the picklist theorywork unnecessary). A friend suggested I re-post the content, because it demonstrates some key facets of picklist strategy.

20 and 5254 are gearing up for Ruckus 2015, which is set to be an awesome event once again.

20 is getting new hands on the controls to begin Drive Team Search 2k16 at this event. We’ll be having new students on the controls for most matches, making some safe stacks of 4 and 5 for the event.

5254 is in an interesting position of being one of three very good landfill robots going to the event, and the students are hungry to finally win an event.

The desired partner going into the event is obviously 1114, capable of tremendous stacking from the landfill and feeder station and likely the #1 seed.

In order to partner with 1114, the main obstacle is 3683, who is capable of multiple stacks of 5 from the feeder station or landfill, as well as a tote stack autonomous and can grabbers.

How do we convince 1114 we’e a better partner for them than 3683?

3683 has worked with 1114 before, in 2014 when they partnered together at an event, while 5254 and 1114 have had only one match together, back when 5254 was a relatively unknown rookie at Ruckus 2014. 3683 noodles their stacks of 5, and is very good at dealing with tipped cans.

5254, however, makes stacks of 6 compared to 3683’s stacks of 5, but doesn’t noodle them when they’re from the landfill. 5254 occasionally takes a while when using tipped cans, but has used tipped cans to make stacks multiple times at IRI while still having time to make 2 capped stacks and an uncapped one from the landfill. 5254 has also been more consistent at making 3 stacks from the feeder station than 3683, and 5254’s stacks from the feeder station are worth 42 points.

The question for 1114 is to compare the pros and cons of 5254 and 3683 as partners, and I don’t know right now who they would pick, or who the better pick is. It depends on how each team is performing at the event, and how seeding works out.

In order to be 1114’s pick instead of 3683, we need to:

  1. Demonstrate that we can consistently hit both our autonomous modes (Can grabbing and tote stack)
  2. Consistently build 2+ stacks of 6 whenever we’re in the landfill
  3. Demonstrate that we’re in a position to threaten their ability to win if they don’t pick us

The last point is an interesting one. Let’s look at some example seeding:

  1. 1114
  2. 5254
  3. 3015
  4. 340
  5. 1126
  6. 4039
  7. 1507
  8. 3683

In this hypothetical, 5254 is more of a threat to 1114 than 3683 is if all other variables are equal. If 1114 picks 3683, we can pick whoever we want at the event, while 3683 would likely get picked by 3015, who may not be the ideal partner for 3683.

  1. 1114
  2. 1507
  3. 1126
  4. 3683
  5. 5254
  6. 4039
  7. 1126
  8. 3015

In this hypothetical, both 3683 and 5254 are equally as threatening to 1114. If 1114 picks 3683 or 5254, the other becomes either the first pick of 1507 or 1126, or a mid-seeded captain.

  1. 3683
  2. 1114
  3. 5254
  4. 1126
  5. 1511
  6. 340
  7. 3015
  8. 4039

This is a bad scenario for us, because 3683 and 1114 are near-guaranteed to team up. That alliance is capable of 6 stacks before they pick their third partner. We have to come up with either two partners that can build 4 stacks from the feeder combined, or two partners that can build 3 stacks from the landfill and feeder station combination, as well as either a partner with a 3 tote autonomous or can grabbers.

To beat 3683-1114, we would need either a really clutch second round pick, or an interesting strategy with partners building stacks in chunks.

For for on picklisting and strategy, check out the “On Scouting” series of posts. They describe much of the theory that went into this hypothetical work.

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